British diplomats have two deeply ingrained instincts, both of which make
them avid for euro membership. The first is to hang on to British
membership of any vaguely prestigious international club, such as the G7
or the UN Security Council -this is known as "having a seat at the
top table" (the question of what is for dinner seems to be entirely
beside the point). The second instinct is to avoid rows or
"diplomatic incidents."
The Bank of England
Eddie George, the governor of the bank, has been making speeches
questioning the wisdom of proceeding with the euro for a couple of years.
He has raised serious economic points. But one cannot help wondering
whether Mr. George's views are coloured by a disinclination to see the
Bank of England relegated to the status of a branch office of the European
central bank. This would be all the more galling since his job has become
a lot more interesting, following the government's decision to hand the
Bank control of interest rates.
The Treasury
For the Treasury , joining the euro would pose no direct threat to
jealously-guarded powers. While the Bank would lose the power to set
interest rates, the Treasury would not lose the power to set or collect
taxes- at least not immediately.
The Unions
The days when Britain's trade unions saw the European Union as a
capitalist plot are long gone. After the Thatcherite assault on the
unions, the labour movement looked longingly to "social Europe"
as a means of regaining lost powers. And indeed the Blair government's
decision to sign Europe's social chapter was an important gain for the
unions. Some British unions are beginning to suspect that European style
works- councils might undercut their traditional role. But for the moment
the unions remain firmly pro-Europe and pro-euro.
Big Business
You might suspect that anything the unions favoured, big business
would oppose. Not so. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) the
largest grouping of basses, is basically in favour of Britain signing up
to the euro. Rather than trying to accumulate power, like the unions, CBI
members are accommodating themselves to where power already lies.
According to the Department of Trade and Industry , some 70% of
legislation affecting British business now emanates from Brussels. The CBI
fears anything that might isolate Britain in Europe.
The City
For every voice expressing anxiety about the City's position if
Britain stays out of the euro, there is another expressing supreme
confidence that all will be well. That is partly because the City already
does a huge amount of business that has nothing to do with sterling. For
example; most of the more than $400 billion that changes hands daily on
the London foreign-exchange markets IS either dollar, yen or Deutschmark
business.
The Celtic Fringe
Some of the most ardent pro-Europeans are to be found in the ranks of
Scottish nationalists. The existence of the European Union allows the Nats
to argue that an independent Scotland will not become a hopelessly
isolated northern outpost. Instead they imagine a thriving statelet with a
larger Europe. According to this view, devolution and eventual
independence for Scotland are of a piece with the creation of a federal
Europe.
The English Establishment
Scottish nationalists favour Eurofederalism because it disperses power
from London; many members of the English establishment, particularly on
the right of the Tory party, fear it for exactly the same reason. At
present, if a chap goes to the right schools and universities, and passes
the right exams, he has a good shot at getting an interesting and
well-rewarded job pulling on the levers of power in Britain. It is
disconcerting to realise that, as power drifts to Brussels, the levers do
not exert as much force as they once did. And when you are certain that
you know your way around the nooks and crannies of the British
establishment, how tiresome to have to learn a new and complicated game in
Brussels.
Rupert Murdoch
The opposition of Rupert Murdoch to the euro is arguably the single
most important fact in Britain's debate. The Blair government has a deep
fear of the country's best- selling paper -the rabidly anti-euro and
Murdoch-owned Sun. But what has Mr. Murdoch got against the euro?
Brussels-bashing has always made good copy for his papers. But more
seriously, the coming of the euro is part of a process involving the
centralisation of economic power and decision-making in pan-European
bodies. And if you were a media magnate with global interests, would you
want to see the rise of an increasingly powerful pan-European regulator,
with uncongenial ideas about "local content" requirement and
cross-media ownership?
On the other hand, Mr. Murdoch's opposition to the euro may not be
immutable. European regulators already have the ability to do Mr.
Murdoch's business interests serious damage, and are holding back his
plans for Sky TV in Europe. If Mr. Murdoch believed that changing his line
on the euro would help him with the regulators, he might swiftly become
more accommodating. After all, he is famously eager to get on with the
Chinese Communist Party.
The Euro will lead to a major reduction in transaction costs. For
businesses and inviduals in the country as a whole, savings could amount
to as much as 0.5% of GDP, or around £25 billion a year at current
values. This is not to be sniffed at. Furthermore, the euro will act as a
sharp spur to improved competitiveness within the single market. Already
one can see a downward effect on the prices of consumer goods in the
Eurozone as compared with the UK as customers are able to make transparent
cross-border price comparisons. The Euro will also help forge a large,
single capital market across Europe, both in debt and corporate equity ,
which will help launch new businesses and feed companies with the
liquidity they need to compete.