There’s
been a lot of talk about global warming. These days it receives
widespread coverage in the quality press and, by now, most of us know
pretty much what we think about it and what should be done: the
Government should do more – the United States should do more and we as
citizens should do more – turn down our heating, remember to put out our
recycling, cut out non essential car journeys. That’s about it isn’t it?
- except for those of us facing difficult decisions on whether to
support or oppose a local wind farm application. Well, no it isn’t; for
while much debate has rightly focussed on what should be done to prevent
or mitigate climate change, there is much less discussion and public
awareness of the extent and consequences of climate change that is
already inevitable.
Within the
lifetime of our youngest children the cost of engineered flood defences
alone to meet the demands of climate change in Wales and England could
bring Flood Risk Management into the same expenditure league as
Education and Defence. And flooding is only one area where climate
change will have a major impact. Health, air quality, water supply and
quality, agriculture, biodiversity and emergency planning will all need
to make major responses. So we need to start making the choices and
taking the actions now, not only to mitigate climate change and
stabilize the global climate, but to adapt what we do to the changes
already on their way to us on coming winds and tides.
Stabilisation of the global climate requires stabilisation of the
concentrations of ‘greenhouse gases’, principally carbon dioxide, in the
atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide have risen from 270 parts per billion to 380 parts per
billion. Stabilisation of this concentration at 550ppm is estimated to
require a 25% reduction in global emissions from 1990 levels. Equity
and convergence between the industrialised and developing world means
that industrialised countries need to cut their emissions by 60% to make
room for limited expansion in China, India and other parts of the world;
hence the UK government’s target to reduce emissions by 60% by 2050. For
this to happen, enormous changes will clearly have to be made in how
energy is used and generated all over the world. Yet even if all of
those changes happen – and that ‘if’ could hardly be larger – climate
change models have suggested the corresponding rise in average global
temperatures will be
2ºC.
Recent work indicates it could be higher, unless even greater cuts are
made sooner.
The UK Climate
Impacts Programme, with inputs from the Hadley and Tyndall Research
Centres predicts that by the 2080s, the UK will be experiencing
temperature rises of 2-3.5ºC, possibly up to 5ºC in some areas, warmer
seas and sea level rises of 20 – 80cm, dryer, hotter summers alongside
milder wetter winters, and an increase in the frequency and severity of
‘extreme events’ – drought, heat waves, floods, storms and gales.
The Kyoto Agreement has been reinforced by the Montreal
Agreement. In Britain the Climate Change Programme means we are on track
to exceed our Kyoto target (but fall short of our own target) through
the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the renewable fuels
obligation and investment in energy efficiency.
However,
whatever our success in restricting greenhouse gas emissions across
Britain, we must adapt to live in a world of growing flood risk caused
by past emissions.
Hurricane
Katrina showed how a failure to visualise possible consequences can
result in poor planning and a delayed emergency response. 1,600 people
died and a year on, half of New Orleans’ population is yet to return.
There was, and is still, no comprehensive database of vulnerable people
for evacuation.
New Orleans is
a long way from Britain. However, in Wales alone 500,000 people and
170,000 properties are at flood risk. By 2080 the annual cost of flood
damage in Wales could rise 20 fold from £70m to £1400m. 70% of the
people live on the coast, where waste and transport infrastructure are
also concentrated, as well as important habitats and grazing land. Of
particular concern is flood risk in the Severn Estuary from a
combination of tides, wind and upstream rainfall.
That’s why in
Wales, being a small country, the Assembly Government has prioritised
adaptation to climate change and created Flood Risk Management Wales to
replace the old Flood Defence Committee system.
The key
insight is that we can’t stop all flooding by investing more and more in
engineered flood defences but must manage the risk and consequences –
both human and environmental - of flooding.
Of primary
importance is not to allow more inappropriate development on the flood
plain which increases the level of flood risk. Devolution has meant
Wales enjoys a significantly higher standard of planning protection. The
law has been strengthened to ensure sustainable development and to
prevent irresponsible house building on the flood plain. It allows
commercial development where the flood consequence assessment shows that
the consequences of flooding can be effectively and safely managed.
However, vulnerable groups and the emergency services are not put at
risk. We have learnt the lesson of the 2005 Carlisle flood, where
essential emergency services were knocked out of action because they
also were on the flood plain.
The new
approach accepts that climate change means not all flooding can be
prevented simply by building flood defences. We must plan on the basis
of sustainable development and ensure those at risk are aware of the
risk, the consequences of the risk and what action they should take when
there is a flood.
It is not
always economic to provide flood protection where there is flood risk so
adaptation of properties and processes is appropriate. This includes
building resilience into infrastructure, emergency planning and quicker
recovery. It also means a commonsense approach from individuals -
positioning plugs up the wall, keeping valuables upstairs, water
resistant floorings, front door steps etc. It also means local
authorities ensuring those at risk are known, informed and factored into
emergency planning.
There are
opportunities for a more creative approach to land management which
eases flooding. For example, allowing woodlands, wetlands and moorlands
to help us go with the flow of nature and exposing agricultural land to
winter flooding to help to protect downstream communities are part of
the new approach. So is redrawing more sustainable lines of defence on
our coast and beside rivers.
Flood risk
management also provides an important opportunity for the extension of
biodiversity. Climate change is already dramatically affecting
ecosystems. Patterns of migration for birds and fish and locations of
habitats are changing as temperatures, sea levels and rainfall patterns
change. Similarly the range and behaviours of flora and fauna is
evolving. This means a new and important part of the management of flood
risk is the extension of biodiversity and habitats sometimes by reducing
flood defences. For example, rising sea levels will inevitably squeeze
the intertidal zone and associated habitat where there are ‘hard’
defences (walls). In contrast, higher water levels in estuaries could
extend areas of tidal floodplain and create more intertidal habitat and
saltmarsh provided these areas remain undeveloped and undefended.
However,
despite a more creative approach to flood risk management we still face
a growing cost of flood defences. Reducing the risk of tidal and river
flooding already costs the Environment Agency £0.4 billion per year.
Over the next 80 years the cost of engineered flood defences to meet
demands of climate change in England and Wales will be between £22 and
£75 billion. Damage costs from flooding are predicted to be as much as
£25 billion under a worst case scenario in the 2080's.
Ultimately
what is defended is not just a technical question. Whether the number of
people defended or the value of their property is the main driver of
investment is a political question and in Wales we are moving in favour
of defending people over property. Naturally
flooding is rising up the political agenda! If you live on the
floodplain you are more likely to die from drowning than from a fire and
less likely to be burgled than flooded.
The global environmental countdown of climate change
demands ever more urgently that our concerns for social justice,
economic efficiency and the environment are set in the context of
sustainable development. This entails spacial planning which factors in
climate change at every stage.
It’s too late to stop flooding so we’d better prepare to
live with it.
As one presidential team might put it :An Inconvenient
Truth - It’s the Environment Stupid !
Geraint Davies - Chair of Flood Risk Management Wales
Geraint lives in Swansea is Chair of LFIG Wales
He was MP for Croydon Central 1997-2005 is Vice President of LFIG
